20.10.25 - 24.10.25
Results of the previous week
| BRN +7.34% | COCOA +5.88% | XU +4.31% |
XAUUSD -6.68% | NG -3.33% | VIX -2.61% |
US indices continue to hold at previously reached highs. Political uncertainty in the US, where the government remains in shutdown mode, is preventing them from rising further. The chances of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its late-October meeting are keeping the indices from falling.
The dollar is strengthening in the forex market as it receives support from the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping expected in the coming week. Markets expect the trade war between the US and China to be moderated. At the end of the week, gold saw its biggest decline against the dollar when it dropped by over 6%.
Brent crude oil prices soared to $65.20 per barrel. Several factors are supporting the energy resource's price. Among them are declining US reserves and the new sanctions against Russia that Trump recently announced, all of which could impact oil supply globally.
Key events of the current week
| Australia. Inflation rate AUD/USD | DATE 29.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in Australia has been falling for a year, which has allowed the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates. However, changing trading conditions and the current geopolitical situation have imposed their own adjustments. Global analysts expect inflation to rise significantly year over year in the reporting period and miss the Australian regulator's target level. This means that the RBA will once again keep its key rate steady at its upcoming meeting as GDP growth remains stable, which is favourable for the Australian dollar. The AUD/USD pair may rise to 0.6600. | |||||
| US Federal Reserve rate decision XAU/USD | DATE 29.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US government shutdown is continuing. The government's not working, and macroeconomic reports aren't being released. This puts the Fed in an information blackout, making it miss out on important inflation and labour market data. In the current context, the regulator is increasingly inclined to cut its key rate, as the Fed chairman has previously stated. Futures data on the interest rate suggest there is a 98.9% chance of the key rate being cut to 4% at the Fed's October meeting. This turn of events would be unfavourable for the dollar, but it's good news for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this situation, XAU/USD could begin to rise again, moving to 4,160.00. | |||||
| European Central Bank's rate decision EUR/USD | DATE 30.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Eurozone economy continues to show signs of a cooldown, which requires the ECB to pursue a soft monetary policy in order to stimulate it. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is experiencing a new wave of inflation driven by high energy prices and trade wars. This means that the European regulator can't cut its key rate. Global analysts expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged. In the short term, this is good news for the euro, and the EUR/USD pair could rise to 1.1700 in this context. | |||||
